If you’re a PE partner or portfolio manager backing B2B technology companies in the $5–$50m revenue range, this is for you.
Because you’ve seen this moment before.
The CEO says “we’re scaling.”
The deck supports it.
The numbers look just good enough.
And then—quietly—twelve months disappear.
Not through a blow-up.
Through drift.
Boards don’t kill deals.
Unanswered questions kill deals later.
The seven questions below are where that usually begins.
1. What Must Be True for This Bet to Work?
(Not what we hope is true.)
Most growth plans are activity lists:
- Hire
- Spend
- Expand
Very few are dependency maps.
What boards are actually testing
Whether the CEO understands the conditions required for success — across product readiness, buyer urgency, pricing durability, sales repeatability, and customer value delivery.
Why this loses a year
When assumptions remain implicit, execution proceeds confidently until reality intervenes.
By the time the true constraints surface, capital is already committed and reversal is politically difficult.
Early warning sign:
Answers drift into narrative instead of conditions.
2. What Evidence Exists — and What Is Still Assumed?
Early traction is seductive:
- One big deal
- Founder-led wins
- A strong quarter
What boards are actually testing
Whether success is repeatable, not merely impressive.
Evidence means:
- Consistent conversion
- Across reps
- Across segments
- Without heroics
Why this loses a year
Scaling assumptions produces activity.
Scaling evidence produces outcomes.
When belief masquerades as data, teams spend months learning what could have been surfaced in weeks.
Early warning sign:
Metrics look healthy in aggregate but collapse when sliced.
3. Which GTM Domain Breaks First Under Scale Pressure?
Every scaling move stresses the system.
One of five domains usually fails first:
- Product
- Positioning
- Pricing
- Sales
- Customer success
What boards are actually testing
Whether leadership knows where fragility lives.
If one domain breaks, the bet weakens.
If two break, the year is gone.
Why this loses a year
Momentum hides weakness until scale exposes it.
Teams compensate reactively — discounting to mask positioning, headcount to mask sales friction — compounding the problem.
Early warning sign:
Over-investment in one domain to defend another.
4. What Happens to Payback if Conversion Drops 20%?
Every plan works at base-case assumptions.
What boards are actually testing
Whether unit economics are robust, not optimistic.
A modest drop in conversion shouldn’t turn a growth bet into a balance-sheet problem.
Why this loses a year
When downside scenarios aren’t modelled, teams commit to spend levels that require perfection.
Reality is rarely that cooperative.
Early warning sign:
Payback math works only if everything goes right.
5. What Is the Time-to-Signal?
When will we actually know this worked?
What boards are actually testing
How quickly success or failure becomes visible.
Time-to-signal matters more than ambition.
If meaningful signal arrives after two quarters, reversibility is already compromised.
Why this loses a year
Delayed feedback delays correction.
By the time evidence arrives, the organisation is structurally committed.
Early warning sign:
Milestones describe effort, not outcomes.
6. Where Is Failure Concentrated?
Is this a single-point-of-failure bet?
What boards are actually testing
Whether downside is distributed or concentrated.
Single-point dependencies — one hire, one channel, one market — turn execution risk into existential risk.
Why this loses a year
When failure concentrates silently, recovery requires re-orgs, re-pricing, or strategic retreats.
All of which cost time.
Early warning sign:
Success depends on one person or motion staying perfect.
7. What Are We Not Doing If We Do This?
Opportunity cost.
What boards are actually testing
Whether leadership understands trade-offs.
Every “yes” consumes:
- Capital
- Leadership attention
- Organisational focus
Why this loses a year
When opportunity cost isn’t explicit, companies drift sideways — executing many reasonable ideas instead of one decisive one.
Early warning sign:
Teams can’t articulate what will stop.
Why These Questions Matter More Than the Plan
Individually, none of these questions is complex.
Collectively, they form an investment lens — applied not to acquisitions, but to internal GTM decisions.
This is the disconnect:
PE firms apply rigorous diligence to buying companies.
But often rely on narrative when funding growth inside them.
In 2026, that gap is expensive.
A Better Way to Answer These Before the Board Asks
The GTM Growth Verdict applies commercial due diligence to one high-stakes GTM decision before capital, credibility, and time are committed.
One decision. 14 days. A board-ready answer:
- GO
- HOLD
- STOP
👉 Get the GTM Growth Verdict
https://techgrowthinsights.com/gtm-growth-leader/commercial-bet-due-diligence/
Because the most costly mistake in PE-backed B2B tech isn’t moving too slowly.
It’s scaling before the decision is actually ready.
Before You Commit Capital, Credibility, or Momentum
Technology CEOs are increasingly using decision-grade GTM due diligence before high-stakes commercial bets — not to outsource judgement, but to ensure the decision stands up before it's made.
When a GTM decision is hard to unwind — a senior hire, a pricing change, a market entry — the cost of being wrong compounds quietly. Two quarters slip away before you know it failed.
Commercial Bet Due Diligence (CBDD) is a short, independent review used before commitment. It evaluates a single GTM bet across product, pricing, positioning, sales, and customer growth — and concludes with a clear verdict:
- Review a sample CBDD board memo — the artefact CEOs and boards use to govern these decisions
- Learn how the CBDD process works — and when it's applied
