Median raw pipeline coverage in the $5M–$50M B2B technology band: 3.4x. Median probability-weighted coverage: 1.8x. The gap is 1.6x — pipeline value counted at face value that has less than a 20% chance of closing this quarter.
This article gives you five data points and a self-scoring methodology you can apply in 3 minutes with your pipeline open in another tab. By the end, you will know your probability-weighted coverage ratio — the single number that most accurately predicts whether you will hit plan this quarter.
Raw Coverage vs. Weighted Coverage: Understanding the 1.6x Gap
Most companies measure coverage raw: total pipeline value divided by quarterly target. A $3.2M pipeline against a $1M target produces 3.2x coverage. The VP Sales reports it. The board relaxes. Nobody does the second calculation.
Probability weighting adjusts each deal by its stage-specific close probability. A $100K deal in Stage 1 at 8% probability contributes $8K to weighted coverage — not $100K. A $50K deal in Stage 3 at 45% contributes $22.5K. The sum of all weighted deals divided by the quarterly target produces the number that reflects what the pipeline can actually deliver.
The 1.6x gap between raw and weighted is phantom pipeline. It exists in the CRM, appears on every dashboard, inflates the coverage ratio the board sees, and will not become revenue. It is the gap between what the system shows and what reality will deliver. Companies that measure only raw coverage make resource allocation, hiring, and investment decisions based on a pipeline that is 47% less valuable than it appears.
Stage-by-Stage Probability Benchmarks
Stage 1 — Initial Qualification: 8% close probability
This stage contains the most pipeline value and the lowest conversion rate. In the typical $5M–$50M company, 55–65% of total pipeline dollar value sits at Stage 1. The deals here have had an initial conversation. Some form of interest has been expressed. But structural qualification has not occurred — no confirmed budget, no verified authority, no validated timeline. The raw coverage ratio is dominated by deals that have a 1-in-12 chance of closing. Measuring coverage without weighting gives these deals the same value as deals with a 9-in-10 chance.
Stage 2 — Discovery Complete: 22% close probability
The first meaningful qualification gate. Deals that pass discovery with confirmed pain, an identified economic buyer, a budget discussion that produced a plausible number, and a timeline anchored to a business event reach 22% probability. This is where pipeline quality begins to separate from pipeline volume. Companies with rigorous Stage 2 qualification criteria have tighter, more accurate forecasts — because fewer unqualified deals make it past this gate to inflate later stages.
Stage 3 — Proposal / Evaluation: 45% close probability
The prospect is actively evaluating. A proposal has been sent or is being prepared. Competitive alternatives are being assessed. This is the stage where most competitive losses occur and where conversion mechanics architecture is most visibly tested. The gap between median and top quartile at Stage 3 is almost entirely attributable to how well the sales motion establishes differentiated value before price becomes the evaluation axis.
Stage 4 — Negotiation: 72% close probability
Commercial terms are being discussed. Legal and procurement may be engaged. The deal is structurally real — the question is terms and timing, not whether the customer will buy. Deals that stall at Stage 4 for more than 3 weeks in mid-market or 6 weeks in enterprise have typically encountered a buyer-side process (security review, budget committee, legal) that the seller’s pipeline model does not track.
Stage 5 — Verbal / Commit: 88% close probability
Verbal commitment received. Contract in process. The 12% that still fail at this stage typically fall to procurement delays exceeding the quarter boundary, internal budget reallocation to a competing priority, organisational restructuring that freezes all new commitments, or a change in the economic buyer’s role or authority during the final approval process.
The Company That Hits Plan
Weighted coverage: 2.1x or higher
Stage distribution: 70%+ of weighted pipeline value from Stage 2 or later. Less than 30% of weighted value sitting in Stage 1. The pipeline is not dependent on early-stage deals converting at improbable rates to fund the forecast.
Pipeline age: Less than 25% of total pipeline value stuck in the same stage for more than 45 days. The pipeline is moving. Deals advance through stages at a measurable cadence or they exit. Stagnation is actively managed rather than passively accepted.
These three numbers together predict plan attainment with 78% accuracy in the $5M–$50M band. A company meeting all three has a pipeline architecture that produces reliable forecasts and consistent revenue. The architecture — not the talent of the sales team — is the differentiating variable.
The Company That Misses
Weighted coverage: 1.2x or below
Stage distribution: 55%+ of weighted pipeline in Stage 1. The majority of the pipeline’s nominal value comes from deals with less than a 10% chance of closing within the quarter. The forecast is built on mathematical hope rather than structural probability.
Pipeline age: 35%+ of total pipeline value stuck in the same stage for more than 45 days. More than a third of the pipeline is structurally stagnant — deals that are not advancing, not converting, and not being removed because removing them would make the coverage number look worse.
This company needs to win approximately 85% of its qualified pipeline to hit the quarterly target — a structural impossibility in any competitive market. Forecast accuracy for companies in this profile: below 65%. The pipeline looks adequate on the dashboard. The weighted reality reveals a company whose forecast is a fiction that occasionally, by coincidence, approximates the outcome.
The Diagnostic Question
If weighted coverage falls below 2.0x, the constraint is either pipeline creation (insufficient qualified volume entering) or pipeline quality (excessive unqualified volume entering too early and inflating coverage without contributing to conversion). The distinction determines the intervention. More creation when quality is the constraint amplifies the problem with additional phantom pipeline. Better qualification when creation is the constraint starves the pipeline of volume it needs.
Distinguishing which constraint is binding requires the structural analysis underneath the coverage number — source-level quality, stage conversion rates, and aging profiles that reveal whether the pipeline is thin or polluted.
Lead-to-Order Structural Assessment
This article gave you the benchmarks and the self-scoring methodology. The Lead-to-Order Structural Assessment tells you which side of each benchmark you sit on, diagnoses why, and quantifies the quarterly cost of the gap. Pipeline Structure is one of six dimensions scored.
The sample company scored 2 out of 5 on Pipeline Structure — with 38% aged pipeline and 1.2x weighted coverage. The structural cost: $55,000–$80,000 per quarter. See what that diagnosis looks like.
Before You Commit Capital, Credibility, or Momentum
Technology CEOs are increasingly using decision-grade GTM due diligence before high-stakes commercial bets — not to outsource judgement, but to ensure the decision stands up before it's made.
When a GTM decision is hard to unwind — a senior hire, a pricing change, a market entry — the cost of being wrong compounds quietly. Two quarters slip away before you know it failed.
Commercial Bet Due Diligence (CBDD) is a short, independent review used before commitment. It evaluates a single GTM bet across product, pricing, positioning, sales, and customer growth — and concludes with a clear verdict:
- Review a sample CBDD board memo — the artefact CEOs and boards use to govern these decisions
- Learn how the CBDD process works — and when it's applied
