COMMERCIAL BET DUE DILIGENCE FOR TELECOMS & IOT CEOs
The most expensive mistake isn’t a failed pilot. It’s the confident commercial decision made without scrutiny.
Before you launch, pivot to enterprise, or restructure your channel — Run Due Diligence on the Commercial Bet.
Independent GTM diligence for telecoms operators, IoT platforms, and connectivity providers at £3m–£25m revenue. One bet. 14 days. A verdict you can defend to your board.
Delivered by the former General Manager, Commercial for Vodafone Group & Telefónica
Serving Telecoms & IoT Companies Across North America & EMEA.
COMMERCIAL BET DUE DILIGENCE FOR TELECOMS & IOT CEOs
The most expensive mistake isn’t a failed pilot. It’s the confident commercial decision made without scrutiny.
Before you launch, pivot to enterprise, or restructure your channel — Run Due Diligence on the Commercial Bet.
Independent GTM diligence for telecoms operators, IoT platforms, and connectivity providers at £3m–£25m revenue. One bet. 14 days. A verdict you can defend to your board.
Delivered by the former General Manager, Commercial for Vodafone Group & Telefónica
Serving Telecoms & IoT Companies Across North America & EMEA.
$30 Billion in Tech Solutions Sold Across 100+ Countries
30+ Tech Companies Transformed
Average 35% Pipeline Growth Within 4 Months
The telecoms playbook is breaking. The IoT promise is stalling. And the hyperscalers are closing in.
Forty-six percent of telco CEOs believe their business won’t be economically viable in ten years at its current path.
That’s not pessimism — that’s a PwC survey of the people running these companies.
The reason is structural. Global telecoms revenue is growing at 2.9% annually — below inflation. ARPU is declining 2% per year across mobile, broadband, and voice. The $275 billion US operators invested in 5G hasn’t delivered the promised returns. The “killer apps” — AR/VR, autonomous vehicles, remote surgery — haven’t arrived and may not until the end of the decade, if at all.
Meanwhile, the equipment market collapsed. Global telecom equipment revenues dropped 11% in 2024 — the steepest decline in more than twenty years. The RAN market has lost $9 billion since its 2021 peak. Nokia’s Mobile Networks division fell 21% year-over-year. This isn’t a dip. It’s a structural correction.
- If you're an operator or reseller at $3m–$25m revenue: You're caught between eroding consumer margins and an enterprise market that requires positioning, proof points, and sales motions you may not have yet. The MVNOs are gaining share. The hyperscalers are positioning themselves as alternative carriers. And consolidation is accelerating — 514 M&A deals in the last five years, with the average European operator serving just 4.5 million subscribers versus 95 million in the US.
- If you're in IoT connectivity or platforms: The pilot-to-production problem is existential. Seventy-five percent of IoT projects fail to achieve their desired results. Seventy-two percent never progress beyond proof of concept. And the five largest hyperscalers now control 60% of the IoT platform market — up from 39% just four years ago. Over 620 IoT platforms have launched. Most have failed. The survivors are either deeply vertical or have embedded with hyperscaler ecosystems.
- If you're selling telecoms equipment: Your customers aren't buying. A 14% decline over two years. Double-digit contractions in RAN, optical transport, and routing. Operators are cutting capex, digesting inventory, and struggling to monetise 5G. Your pipeline isn't just slow — the market dynamics underneath it have shifted.
- If you're in eSIM or embedded connectivity: Only 36% of global smartphone owners even recognise the term "eSIM." Operators are hesitant about mass-marketing because they fear churn. Peak operator adoption was 2022 — and it's been declining since. The travel eSIM play is real, but differentiation is narrowing.
In this environment, the cost of a wrong commercial bet isn’t just money. It’s 6–12 months pursuing a product launch that doesn’t land, an enterprise motion that doesn’t convert, or a partnership that compresses your margins while handing your customer relationships to someone else.
The winners aren’t moving faster. They’re making fewer, better bets — and running diligence before they commit.
Confident bets made without diligence.
These are the decisions that feel like progress but often aren’t:
For Telecoms Operators & Resellers:
- Pivoting to enterprise without repositioning or proof points
- Launching managed services before margin economics are clear
- Hiring enterprise sales before the motion is proven
- Restructuring channel without understanding partner economics
- Repositioning from "connectivity provider" to "solutions partner" without validating what buyers want
- Bundling 5G capabilities that customers aren't willing to pay premium for
For IoT & Connectivity Providers:
- Scaling from PoC to production before conversion physics are proven (72% of IoT projects stall at PoC)
- Going vertical without understanding buyer differences
- Staying horizontal while hyperscalers commoditise your platform layer
- Pursuing carrier partnerships without margin clarity
- Pricing restructures (per-device to platform) without testing buyer acceptance
- Hiring enterprise sales before pilot conversion rates justify the cost
For Telecoms Equipment Manufacturers:
- Expanding into new regions while core markets contract
- Pivoting to private 5G or edge before enterprise demand materialises
- Repositioning from hardware to software/services without proof points
- Pursuing Open RAN opportunities that operators aren't actually buying
- Hiring sales capacity for a market that isn't recovering
For eSIM & Embedded Connectivity Providers:
- Scaling consumer marketing when only 36% recognise the category
- Pursuing MNO partnerships without margin and ownership clarity
- Betting on travel eSIM without differentiation from commoditised competitors
- Expanding into M2M/IoT without integration and deployment capabilities
Each of these decisions commits budget, headcount, and credibility for 6–12 months. Each is difficult to reverse once locked in. And each one fails more often than it succeeds when made without diligence.
Treat commercial moves like investment decisions.
When a PE firm evaluates an acquisition, they don’t guess. They run diligence. They pressure-test assumptions. They identify risk before committing capital.
Your commercial bets deserve the same rigour.
Commercial Bet Due Diligence applies investment-grade scrutiny to the decisions that shape your next 12 months — before you hire, expand markets, restructure channels, or pursue enterprise deals.
At the End of 14 Days, You'll Know Which is True:
- GO - The bet is sound. Commit with confidence. Here's how to execute.
- HOLD - The bet has merit, but conditions aren't right. Wait, or adjust scope.
- STOP - The bet will likely fail. Don't proceed. Here's what to do instead.
No hedged recommendations. No 50-page strategy decks. A clear verdict with the reasoning to stand behind it — something you can defend to your board, investors, or leadership team. Delivered in 14 days.
What you bring: One bet.
Commercial Bet Due Diligence™ is designed for a single, well-defined commercial decision. Not five. Not a “general GTM review.” One bet that’s weighing on you.
For Telecoms Operators & Resellers:
- Enterprise pivot bet: "We're moving from consumer to enterprise (or SMB to mid-market). Is our sales motion and positioning ready — or will we burn 12 months learning what doesn't work?"
- Managed services bet: "We're expanding into managed services / managed connectivity. Do we have the positioning and proof points to win against larger competitors?"
- Hiring bet: "We're about to hire a VP of Sales / Head of Enterprise / Commercial Director. Is this the right move, right now — or premature?"
- Channel restructure bet: "We're restructuring our channel — direct vs. partner vs. wholesale. What's the right motion for our economics and market position?"
- 5G monetisation bet: "We're launching 5G-dependent services. Is there actually willingness to pay — or are we building for a market that doesn't exist yet?"
- Consolidation bet: "We're considering acquisition or merger. Are we ready to absorb — or should we be positioning to be acquired?"
For IoT & Connectivity Providers:
- Vertical vs. horizontal bet: "We're debating vertical specialisation vs. staying horizontal. Which positioning gives us defensible differentiation against hyperscalers?"
- Enterprise bet: "We're moving upmarket to enterprise IoT. Is our sales motion ready for 12-18 month cycles and 6+ stakeholders — when 75% of projects fail?"
- Carrier partnership bet: "We're pursuing carrier partnerships for distribution. Are we ready — and will we preserve margin and customer ownership?"
- Pricing restructure bet: "We're moving from per-device to platform pricing. Will buyers accept it? Will it break existing relationships?"
- Scale bet: "We're ready to scale from pilots to production deployments. Are our conversion physics proven — or will we hire ahead of reality?"
For Equipment Manufacturers:
- Market pivot bet: "Core RAN market is contracting. Should we pivot to private 5G, edge, or software — and is enterprise demand real?"
- Geographic expansion bet: "We're expanding into new regions while home market contracts. Is this the right diversification — or spreading thin?"
- Services pivot bet: "We're repositioning from hardware to software/services. Do we have the capabilities and positioning to win?"
For eSIM Providers:
- Market expansion bet: "We're scaling consumer marketing. Is awareness sufficient — or are we burning budget educating a market that isn't ready?"
- Partnership bet: "We're pursuing MNO partnerships. Will we preserve margin and customer ownership — or become a white-label commodity?"
- Vertical expansion bet: "We're moving into M2M/IoT. Do we have the integration capabilities the market requires?"
If you’re facing a decision like this — one that commits significant time, money, or credibility — this is what the process is built for.
What You Get in 14 Days
Diligence Brief
A written analysis of the bet — what must be true for it to succeed, what is currently true, and where the gaps are. Covers market context, competitive positioning, conversion physics, and execution requirements specific to telecoms and IoT GTM.
Risk Map
An explicit catalogue of the risks this bet carries — categorised by severity, likelihood, and mitigation options. Telecoms/IoT-specific risks: ARPU erosion pressure, hyperscaler displacement, pilot-to-production failure, carrier partnership margin compression, enterprise sales cycle mismatch, 5G monetisation gaps, consolidation vulnerability.
The Due Diligence Readout (5–7 pages, board-safe)
A live session to walk through the verdict, the reasoning, and the implications. This is where we discuss the GO, HOLD, or STOP recommendation and what it means for your next 90 days.
Case 1: The Enterprise Pivot That Needed Proof First (Regional Operator)
The bet: Regional telecoms operator CEO (£9m revenue, 75% consumer) was planning enterprise expansion with dedicated sales hire.
What diligence found: Current positioning was “reliable regional connectivity” — fine for consumer, invisible to enterprise. No enterprise case studies. Enterprise buyers in target segment locked into multi-year contracts with Tier 1 providers. An enterprise sales hire would spend 6+ months building pipeline that couldn’t close without repositioning and competitive differentiation.
The verdict: HOLD. Land 3-5 enterprise deals founder-led to learn what resonates and build proof points. Then hire to scale.
Outcome: CEO closed 4 enterprise deals over 5 months through personal network. Learned that “local responsiveness and flexibility” was the winning differentiator vs. Tier 1 rigidity. Hired enterprise sales with playbook in hand. Avoided 6+ months of misdirected effort and £180k in opportunity cost.
Case 2: The Vertical Bet That Unlocked Differentiation (IoT Platform)
The bet: IoT platform CEO ($5m ARR, horizontal positioning) was debating vertical specialisation in logistics vs. staying horizontal.
What diligence found: Horizontal positioning indistinguishable from 50+ competitors. Win rates declining as buyers defaulted to AWS IoT or larger platforms. However, 55% of revenue came from logistics customers with deep workflow knowledge competitors lacked. Industry data showed hyperscalers now control 60% of platform market — horizontal positioning increasingly untenable. Vertical positioning would sacrifice addressable market but could command 2-3x pricing premium.
The verdict: GO on logistics vertical — but sequence carefully. Rebrand positioning, develop logistics-specific case studies, then expand sales.
Outcome: Repositioned as “IoT platform for logistics operations.” Lost 2 non-logistics pipeline deals (expected). Won 5 new logistics deals in first 6 months at 2.2x previous ACV. Pipeline quality improved dramatically. Revenue up 40% year-over-year despite narrower market.
Case 3: The Equipment Pivot That Needed Market Validation (Manufacturer)
The bet: Telecoms equipment manufacturer CEO ($7m revenue) was planning pivot from traditional RAN components to private 5G solutions as core market contracted.
What diligence found: RAN market down 11% in 2024 — steepest decline in 20 years. However, private 5G enterprise demand still nascent. Enterprise sales cycles 18+ months. Current team had no enterprise sales experience. Pivot would require £400k+ investment before first revenue — in a market where demand wasn’t yet proven at scale.
The verdict: STOP on full pivot. GO on selective private 5G pilots with 2-3 enterprise customers to validate demand before committing investment.
Outcome: CEO secured 2 private 5G pilots through existing relationships. One converted to full deployment; one stalled at budget approval (validating enterprise cycle concerns). Learned that manufacturing verticals had clearer ROI than logistics. Avoided £400k in premature investment. Now planning measured expansion with proven playbook.
Case 4: The Carrier Partnership That Needed Margin Clarity (eSIM Provider)
The bet: eSIM connectivity provider CEO (€4m ARR) was pursuing partnership with Tier 2 carrier for distribution into consumer travel market.
What diligence found: Carrier partnership would provide access to consumer base but required 35% revenue share plus integration costs. At current pricing, carrier deals would be margin-negative for 12+ months. Additionally, carrier would own customer relationship, limiting expansion revenue. Only 36% of consumers recognise “eSIM” — carrier wasn’t planning education spend.
The verdict: STOP on carrier partnership at current terms. GO on direct consumer sales with travel-focused positioning and educational marketing.
Outcome: Declined carrier partnership. Built direct-to-consumer travel eSIM positioning with longer CAC payback but 3x better unit economics and customer ownership. Closed B2B partnerships with travel companies instead. Revisiting carrier conversation from position of strength with proven consumer traction.
Why "HOLD" Is Often The Win
In telecoms and IoT, premature commitment is the killer. The market is littered with failed enterprise pivots, platform launches that couldn’t escape pilot purgatory, and carrier partnerships that compressed margins instead of expanding them.
"We were about to hire an enterprise sales team for a market pivot that looked like growth. The diligence showed our positioning was invisible to enterprise buyers and our pipeline would stall without proof points we didn't have yet. HOLD gave us the playbook to build those proof points founder-led first. Six months later, we hired with a validated motion instead of a theory."
A HOLD verdict isn’t a failure. It’s a decision to wait until conditions are right — with clarity on what “right” looks like.
Sometimes the most valuable outcome is the bet you don’t make until you’re ready.
Who this is for.
This is built for you if:
- You're a telecoms, IoT, or connectivity CEO at $3m–$25m revenue
- You're facing a specific commercial decision in the next 30–90 days
- The decision commits significant budget, headcount, or credibility
- You want independent perspective, not another vendor pitch
- You're willing to hear HOLD or STOP if that's the right answer
This is not for you if:
- You want a full GTM strategy or 12-month roadmap
- You need execution support, not just a verdict
- The decision is already made and you want validation
- You're pre-revenue or below $3m ARR
- You're looking for a fractional CMO engagement
Who Delivers This
This is not junior analysis. It’s senior judgement — applied to one decision.
I’m Michael Williamson, fractional CMO and GTM strategist for B2B technology firms:
- former Vice President Marketing, Symantec
- former Chief Marketing & Products Officer, Equifax
- former General Manager, Vodafone Group
- former General Manager, Telefonica
- former Vice President Marketing, Staples
- London Business School MBA
26+ Telecoms & IoT companies advised
$30B+ Technology revenues influenced
35% Average pipeline growth delivered
What the World's Best Tech Executives Say
100% Risk-Free Guarantee
That's the standard. If you finish the Readout and the verdict hasn't sharpened your thinking on this bet — whether GO, HOLD, or STOP — you owe nothing.
This only works if you get clarity. If you don't, I haven't delivered.
Before You Commit, Get the Verdict
I take 3-4 engagements per month.